Electoral Vote and Poll Tracker

[Henry Hawk]

Isn't that what we do?

When you say WE, do you have a mouse in your pocket? 

[Henry Hawk]

I'll be sure and let you know when you do.

and I have 100% confidence that YOU will do exactly that.....

[The Troll]

I just said, the only one that MATTERS is the one taken on Nov 6th.  But, I appreciate you took the time to try to start yet another argument...  

Olias, did I forget anything?  I don't think I did.  Just because I posted in my opinion, a fact.  It does not mean I conveniently forgot anything.

  Hawk, have you ever checked your back, someone has taped a target on your back.     

[Palehorse]

I hereby nominate you as the forum historian. 

I second that nomination! 

(that boy can filter text faster than we can think of it.)

[Bo D]

Thank you! Thank You!

It comes from more than 20 years of working with databases.

[followsthewolf]

Hell, you could sell your services as an on-line librarian!!

[Bo D]

Hell, you could sell your services as an on-line librarian!!

Sell my services ... that sort of sounds like one of these guys!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2011/sep/29/librarians-men-of-the-stacks-calendar

[followsthewolf]

 

Whatever floats yer boat, my friend.

[Bo D]

Whatever floats yer boat, my friend.

Not my cup of tea. But thanks!

[libby]

Thank you! Thank You!

It comes from more than 20 years of working with databases.

It's much more than that, and those of us who've posted with you over the years know it

[The Troll]

  America is stuck with the Electoral College which was to give the small states a place in the presidential elections.  It is out dated in this day and age of computers.  It is causing these battle ground states wars where just a few states control the whole election.

  We need to abolish it and replace with computers to count each and every vote of every voter.  With the illegal Republican Voter ID laws, these laws are corrupting the whole voting process.   

  As the Republican voter crook from Ohio said,"this voter ID bill will deliver Ohio to Mitt Romney, DONE!"  These people are guilty of treason and need to be in jail or hung.   


                                                                        Wake up Americans
                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                  

[Anne]

We had the pantry open yesterday and 98 people went through. Only one peerson did not have a valid government issued ID. About half of the people who come through are African American, maybe 3 Hispanic, and the rest caucasion. The one person without an ID was white. Having an ID does not seem to be an issue.

[Henry Hawk]

 University of Colorado analysis of election winner will be Republican Mitt Romney.(accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980)




A University of Colorado analysis of election factors that's accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980 revealed Wednesday that the 2012 winner will be Republican Mitt Romney.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at CU-Boulder.

According to an analysis that looks at economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, President Barack Obama will win 218 electoral votes, well short of the 270 benchmark he must reach in order to win a second term.
That calculation paints an awfully different picture than the current electoral map eleven weeks from Election Day, where RCP averages show Obama with a slight lead in nine of the 10 swing states that will decide the election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Only North Carolina shows Romney ahead based on the average of recent polls.
Although the polling averages show Obama's lead on those swing states is mostly within the margin of error, the president would have to lose all 10 of those states to come in at 218 electoral votes, as the CU study predicts.

Looking at per capita income and state and national unemployment rates, the study's authors conclude that Obama's incumbency advantage is offset by stubbornly high unemployment — and that other factors, like the home state of the top candidates, support from swing state governors and the locations of the party conventions, don't mean much at the end of the day.
According to Bickers, election prediction models "suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy. It's not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics."
But, Professor Michael Berry, who conducted the study along with Bickers, cautioned that the model isn't a sure thing just because it has been for 32 years now."As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to predict," Berry said.

[Henry Hawk]

"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," said Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder.

[Bo D]

Help me out here ... this seems like a bit of convoluted logic and contradiction.

"RCP averages show Obama with a slight lead in nine of the 10 swing states that will decide the election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin."

"the president would have to lose all 10 of those states to come in at 218 electoral votes, as the CU study predicts."



So how do they come to their conclusion that "the 2012 winner will be Republican Mitt Romney?"