The storm prediction center in Norman, OK did a study back in 2003-2004 surrounding the historic record of long track tornadoes between F3 and F5. They went through the records from 1880 through 2003 and they then used this information to understand which cities, from a historical perspective, have a history of enduring these types of tornadoes.
They came up with a listing that assigned a value to these cities. (Higher the number, higher the risk).
Value City State
10.2 Tulsa OK
9.3 Shreveport LA
8.8 South Bend IN
7.6 Indianapolis IN
7.5 Huntsville AL
7.3 Topeka KS
6.9 Springfield IL
6.2 Jackson MS
6.0 Nashville TN
Credit to: "EVIDENCE OF SMALLER TORNADO ALLEYS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BASED ON A LONG TRACK F3 TO F5 TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY STUDY FROM 1880 TO 2003" by Chris Broyles and Casey Crosbie of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.
(http://www.tornadochaser.net/tornadoalley.jpg)
According to this (which is a map comprised by a storm chaser that he developed based upon his data accumulated by chasing tornadoes) New Mexico is looking like a great place to live to avoid monster tornadoes like the ones in OK Sunday and Monday.
And here's a map showing tornado frequency in the country, that he got from NOAA:
(http://www.tornadochaser.net/images/frequency.gif)
That is strange that Indianapolis is that high on the list.
Indy has only had 41 tornadoes in the last 63 years....with only one F4 and that was in 1972.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/severe-weather/articles/tornadoes-by-month-indianapolis_2010-03-25 (http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/severe-weather/articles/tornadoes-by-month-indianapolis_2010-03-25)
Oklahoma City had 101 in that same time frame.
Just curious on how they arrived at that statistic.
(http://www.tornadochaser.net/images/frequency.jpg)
National averages (annual) by state according to NOAA (1991 - 2010)
(http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/ann-avg-torn1991-2010.gif)
Quote from: Henry Hawk on May 21, 2013, 12:24:51 PM
That is strange that Indianapolis is that high on the list.
Indy has only had 41 tornadoes in the last 63 years....with only one F4 and that was in 1972.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/severe-weather/articles/tornadoes-by-month-indianapolis_2010-03-25 (http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/severe-weather/articles/tornadoes-by-month-indianapolis_2010-03-25)
Oklahoma City had 101 in that same time frame.
Just curious on how they arrived at that statistic.
Their study used a much smaller window. The Storm Prediction Center's study used data from 1800 to 2003.
Here's a map of F5's - 1950 through 2011.
I personally witnessed number 43 and its destruction.
=================================================
NUMBER DATE LOCATION
====== ===================== ===========================
58 May 24, 2011 El Reno/Piedmont OK
57 May 22, 2011 Joplin MO
56 April 27, 2011 Rainsville/Sylvania AL
55 April 27, 2011 Preston MS
54 April 27, 2011 Hackleburg/Phil Campbell AL
53 April 27, 2011 Smithville MS
52 May 25, 2008 Parkersburg IA
51 May 4, 2007 Greensburg KS
50 May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek/Moore OK
49 April 16, 1998 Waynesboro TN
48 April 8, 1998 Oak Grove/Pleasant Grove AL
47 May 27, 1997 Jarrell TX
46 July 18, 1996 Oakfield WI
45 June 16, 1992 Chandler MN
44 April 26, 1991 Andover KS
43 August 28, 1990 Plainfield IL
42 March 13, 1990 Goessel KS
41 March 13, 1990 Hesston KS
40 May 31, 1985 Niles OH
39 June 7, 1984 Barneveld WI
38 April 2, 1982 Broken Bow OK
37 April 4, 1977 Birmingham AL
36 June 13, 1976 Jordan IA
35 April 19, 1976 Brownwood TX
34 March 26, 1976 Spiro OK
33 April 3, 1974 Guin AL
32 April 3, 1974 Tanner AL
31 April 3, 1974 Mt. Hope AL
30 April 3, 1974 Sayler Park OH
29 April 3, 1974 Brandenburg KY
28 April 3, 1974 Xenia OH
27 April 3, 1974 Daisy Hill IN
26 May 6, 1973 Valley Mills TX
25 February 21, 1971 Delhi LA
24 May 11, 1970 Lubbock TX
23 June 13, 1968 Tracy MN
22 May 15, 1968 Maynard IA
21 May 15, 1968 Charles City IA
20 April 23, 1968 Gallipolis OH
19 October 14, 1966 Belmond IA
18 June 8, 1966 Topeka KS
17 March 3, 1966 Jackson MS
16 May 8, 1965 Gregory SD
15 May 5, 1964 Bradshaw NE
14 April 3, 1964 Wichita Falls TX
13 May 5, 1960 Prague OK
12 June 4, 1958 Menomonie WI
11 December 18, 1957 Murphysboro IL
10 June 20, 1957 Fargo ND
9 May 20, 1957 Ruskin Heights MO
8 April 3, 1956 Grand Rapids MI
7 May 25, 1955 Udall KS
6 May 25, 1955 Blackwell OK
5 December 5, 1953 Vicksburg MS
4 June 27, 1953 Adair IA
3 June 8, 1953 Flint MI
2 May 29, 1953 Ft. Rice ND
1 May 11, 1953 Waco TX
(http://i475.photobucket.com/albums/rr111/hlovett_2008/usf5tors_zps9440bc20.gif) (http://s475.photobucket.com/user/hlovett_2008/media/usf5tors_zps9440bc20.gif.html)
But even with that, Indiana only had 22 and look at all the others with MUCH larger average....
anyway, it STILL doesn't seem right, but I guess who am I to KNOCK their study, huh? :razz:
This is downtown Miami back in 1997. At the time, I was working in this area in one of the high-rise office buildings. Think this is one of our routine tropical storms? It's not. Keep watching the video.
http://www.youtube.com/v/CRuwJN8yuoA
Quote from: Henry Hawk on May 21, 2013, 01:00:33 PM
But even with that, Indiana only had 22 and look at all the others with MUCH larger average....
anyway, it STILL doesn't seem right, but I guess who am I to KNOCK their study, huh? :razz:
You're confused.
The first post is outlining a study of f-3 through f-5
long track tornadoes only. NOT little twisters or those rated under f-3 that were not "long track" in duration. In Addition the first study involves a time period much longer than any of the latter posted studies; encompassing the data 1880 through 2003. (And then ONLY long track tornadoes of a rating of f-3 or above) .
Indiana's "average" of 22 was for the years 1991 through 2010; and was an average of that time period that included all tornadoes of any rating.
When the data encompasses a larger time period, (as in the first one I posted about), and limits the data to only those that rate f-3 or above and those being long track (meaning time and distance on the ground), Indiana jumps up toward the top because it has two cities on opposite sides of the state that rank right beneath the #1 and #2 cities of Tulsa, OK and Shreveport, LA.
The F5 only map / listing for the time period of 1950 through present, demonstrates that southern Indiana and the "tri-state" area of Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky have been demonstrably dangerous for an F5 event over the past 63 years.
You can slough that off if you want to; after all it is your life. But to me that demonstrates the fact that when we do get a tornado it has a high likelihood of being a highly destructive and killer one. And I take that seriously and plan accordingly.
The "traditional" location of tornado alley is below:
(http://i475.photobucket.com/albums/rr111/hlovett_2008/dataAy5GWBeob_WIPLDYoIWcfVXxvZu9XwJ55OX7AgBQyJ3RZUYnNpW4EkDPM6RogQnVysTC7GjG9ML4xah4SmeVxzLdGziC5kPARetoneJTEMx85ww8atq5o0ZS_zps01b03a32.gif) (http://s475.photobucket.com/user/hlovett_2008/media/dataAy5GWBeob_WIPLDYoIWcfVXxvZu9XwJ55OX7AgBQyJ3RZUYnNpW4EkDPM6RogQnVysTC7GjG9ML4xah4SmeVxzLdGziC5kPARetoneJTEMx85ww8atq5o0ZS_zps01b03a32.gif.html)
And as the information I posted bears out, this "view" is no longer accurate and a wise individual would be well advised to educate themselves based upon the wealth of current data and analysis available today.
Quote from: Palehorse on May 21, 2013, 11:48:03 PM
You can slough that off if you want to.
What is the matter with you? You jump to conclusions WAY too often. :rolleyes: I'm not sloughing anything off....I just made an observation, NOT declaring anything or anyone wrong. Just added to your conversation.
Quote from: Henry Hawk on May 22, 2013, 09:46:20 AM
What is the matter with you? You jump to conclusions WAY too often. :rolleyes: I'm not sloughing anything off....I just made an observation, NOT declaring anything or anyone wrong. Just added to your conversation.
And I am just responding to you in the manner your usual approach dictates.
You created this mess. . .
Quote from: Palehorse on May 22, 2013, 12:09:52 PM
And I am just responding to you in the manner your usual approach dictates.
You created this mess. . .
What mess are you talking about? I thought we was having a discussion and you turned it into something else, like always.
Quote from: Henry Hawk on May 22, 2013, 12:31:20 PM
What mess are you talking about? I thought we was having a discussion and you turned it into something else, like always.
No. I made a statement and you took it personally, as usual.
You are the one who places this ship into peril on a daily basis. You spin and twist things in order to create an environment of chaos.
You take a topic related to a current event and make it a personal tragedy.
There's nothing wrong with disagreeing with a view or position, but when you use opinion in an attempt to discredit scientific fact you aren't doing anything to bolster your credibility. . .
Quote from: Palehorse on May 22, 2013, 12:35:22 PM
No. I made a statement and you took it personally, as usual.
You are the one who places this ship into peril on a daily basis. You spin and twist things in order to create an environment of chaos.
You take a topic related to a current event and make it a personal tragedy.
There's nothing wrong with disagreeing with a view or position, but when you use opinion in an attempt to discredit scientific fact you aren't doing anything to bolster your credibility. . .
You made it personal with the comment "You can slough that off if you want to; after all it is your life."
It is NOT scientific FACT that "we" are causing this recent BAD weather to happen.....THAT is all I am saying. You have NO PROOF that it is, but you continue to make comments referring that it is.
You know, let's just go back to NOT exchanging with one another.....It seems to work better that way.
I am here to have fun, and as Locutus referrs it to as a coffee shop with friends hanging out..........I will make my comments as I please, and IF you think my crediblity is bolstered then so be it.
You know the kind of guy I am PH.....I would give you the shirt off of my back if you needed it.
This just shows you better be ready to meet your maker. When a EF what ever appears on your door, there may not be time to repent.
Quote from: RC on May 22, 2013, 01:00:58 PM
This just shows you better be ready to meet your maker. When a EF what ever appears on your door, there may not be time to repent.
Go preach somewhere else hypocrite.
Quote from: Henry Hawk on May 22, 2013, 12:41:30 PM
You made it personal with the comment "You can slough that off if you want to; after all it is your life."
It is NOT scientific FACT that "we" are causing this recent BAD weather to happen.....THAT is all I am saying. You have NO PROOF that it is, but you continue to make comments referring that it is.
. . .
Again, a general statement that YOU chose to take personally. That makes it your problem and not mine. Out of the entire post you focused on one sentence. (Technically, half a sentence until the post above which I am quoting).
It's not scientific fact? Really? You go with that.
The only reason you hold that position is that you read pseudo scientific blogs by the likes of Goldman and because of people like him the facts become obscured by the bullshit they spew; which you apparently prefer because they feed your skewed world views.
Moreover, now you are taking a topic about F3-F5 Long Track Tornadoes off into the deep weeds by trying to take the topic into global warming. WHERE in this topic have I said anything that could be construed as being on the subject of global warming? YOU are trying to take it there.
Once again we see indications that you cannot multi-task and keep topics on different things separate. :rolleyes:
:rolleyes:
Quote from: Palehorse on May 22, 2013, 01:15:07 PM
Again, a general statement that YOU chose to take personally. That makes it your problem and not mine. Out of the entire post you focused on one sentence. (Technically, half a sentence until the post above which I am quoting).
It's not scientific fact? Really? You go with that.
The only reason you hold that position is that you read pseudo scientific blogs by the likes of Goldman and because of people like him the facts become obscured by the bullshit they spew; which you apparently prefer because they feed your skewed world views.
Moreover, now you are taking a topic about F3-F5 Long Track Tornadoes off into the deep weeds by trying to take the topic into global warming. WHERE in this topic have I said anything that could be construed as being on the subject of global warming? YOU are trying to take it there.
Once again we see indications that you cannot multi-task and keep topics on different things separate. :rolleyes:
I want to reiterate one thing. I pointed out the FACT the Indianapolis had ONE EF3 or higher tornado since 1972, and YOUR list had Indianapolis on the list as the city with the fourth highest risk. I just found your source to not make any sense. I didn't slam it, or you. Just made an observation based on fact. OPENED it up for a civil discussion.
I didn't attack in any way, shape or form.
Secondly, I have never heard of Goldman before. I have based my opinion of other scientists views on Global Warming. Not because they fit MY "skewed" opinion......but, because it makes MORE sense.
I have a strong distrust in the political agenda that has risen from the scientific world concering GW. Al Gore being ONE as an example, that set the tone for me.
Thirdly,
I didn't KNOW it was RULE that we could not talk about other topics inside another topic....it seemed approriate to me to say what I did. I certainly didn't mean to ruffle any feathers.
Just tryin have some fun....I'm not going to get all wrapped up in emotion ever again.
:yes:
Quote from: Henry Hawk on May 22, 2013, 02:24:09 PM
I have based my opinion of other scientists views on Global Warming. Not because they fit MY "skewed" opinion......but, because it makes MORE sense.
In the same way it makes more sense to see a neurologist about heart problems?
Quote from: Henry Hawk on May 22, 2013, 02:24:09 PM
I want to reiterate one thing. I pointed out the FACT the Indianapolis had ONE EF3 or higher tornado since 1972, and YOUR list had Indianapolis on the list as the city with the fourth highest risk. I just found your source to not make any sense. I didn't slam it, or you. Just made an observation based on fact. OPENED it up for a civil discussion.
I didn't attack in any way, shape or form.
Secondly, I have never heard of Goldman before. I have based my opinion of other scientists views on Global Warming. Not because they fit MY "skewed" opinion......but, because it makes MORE sense.
I have a strong distrust in the political agenda that has risen from the scientific world concering GW. Al Gore being ONE as an example, that set the tone for me.
Thirdly,
I didn't KNOW it was RULE that we could not talk about other topics inside another topic....it seemed approriate to me to say what I did. I certainly didn't mean to ruffle any feathers.
Just tryin have some fun....I'm not going to get all wrapped up in emotion ever again.
:yes:
My mistake. I meant Steven Goddard the self proclaimed climatologist.
Thes rest of this is blah, blah, blah.
By the way, have you found it yet Henry?
found what?
I'm not looking for anything.
The only thing I DID do was point out the INDIANAPOLIS has had only ONE tornado bigger than an EF4 since 1972.......and whas wondering WHY your list had INDIANAPOLIS a big risk city.
That's it, nothing more, nothingless.
Quote from: Henry Hawk on May 23, 2013, 08:13:34 AM
found what?
. . .
What I had for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.