F3-F5 Long Track Tornadoes

[Palehorse]

The storm prediction center in Norman, OK did a study back in 2003-2004 surrounding the historic record of long track tornadoes between F3 and F5. They went through the records from 1880 through 2003 and they then used this information to understand which cities, from a historical perspective, have a history of enduring these types of tornadoes.

They came up with a listing that assigned a value to these cities. (Higher the number, higher the risk).

Value City         State
10.2   Tulsa   OK
9.3   Shreveport   LA
8.8   South Bend   IN
7.6   Indianapolis   IN
7.5   Huntsville   AL
7.3   Topeka   KS
6.9   Springfield   IL
6.2   Jackson   MS
6.0   Nashville   TN

Credit to: "EVIDENCE OF SMALLER TORNADO ALLEYS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BASED ON A LONG TRACK F3 TO F5 TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY STUDY FROM 1880 TO 2003" by  Chris Broyles and Casey Crosbie of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.

[Palehorse]

According to this (which is a map comprised by a storm chaser that he developed based upon his data accumulated by chasing tornadoes) New Mexico is looking like a great place to live to avoid monster tornadoes like the ones in OK Sunday and Monday.

[Palehorse]

And here's a map showing tornado frequency in the country, that he got from NOAA:

[Henry Hawk]

That is strange that Indianapolis is that high on the list.

Indy has only had 41 tornadoes in the last 63 years....with only one F4 and that was in 1972.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/severe-weather/articles/tornadoes-by-month-indianapolis_2010-03-25
Oklahoma City had 101 in that same time frame.

Just curious on how they arrived at that statistic.

[Palehorse]

[Palehorse]

National averages (annual) by state according to NOAA (1991 - 2010)

[Palehorse]

That is strange that Indianapolis is that high on the list.

Indy has only had 41 tornadoes in the last 63 years....with only one F4 and that was in 1972.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/severe-weather/articles/tornadoes-by-month-indianapolis_2010-03-25
Oklahoma City had 101 in that same time frame.

Just curious on how they arrived at that statistic.

Their study used a much smaller window. The Storm Prediction Center's study used data from 1800 to 2003.

[Palehorse]

Here's a map of F5's  - 1950 through 2011.

I personally witnessed number 43 and its destruction.

=================================================
NUMBER   DATE                    LOCATION
======   =====================   ===========================

58   May 24, 2011      El Reno/Piedmont OK
57   May 22, 2011      Joplin MO
56   April 27, 2011      Rainsville/Sylvania AL
55   April 27, 2011      Preston MS
54   April 27, 2011      Hackleburg/Phil Campbell AL
53   April 27, 2011      Smithville MS
52   May 25, 2008      Parkersburg IA
51      May 4, 2007             Greensburg KS
50   May 3, 1999             Bridge Creek/Moore OK
49   April 16, 1998          Waynesboro TN
48   April 8, 1998           Oak Grove/Pleasant Grove AL
47   May 27, 1997            Jarrell TX
46   July 18, 1996           Oakfield WI
45   June 16, 1992           Chandler MN
44   April 26, 1991          Andover KS
43   August 28, 1990         Plainfield IL
42   March 13, 1990          Goessel KS
41   March 13, 1990          Hesston KS
40   May 31, 1985            Niles OH
39   June 7, 1984            Barneveld WI
38   April 2, 1982           Broken Bow OK
37   April 4, 1977           Birmingham AL
36   June 13, 1976           Jordan IA
35   April 19, 1976          Brownwood TX
34   March 26, 1976          Spiro OK
33   April 3, 1974           Guin AL
32   April 3, 1974           Tanner AL
31   April 3, 1974           Mt. Hope AL
30   April 3, 1974           Sayler Park OH
29   April 3, 1974           Brandenburg KY
28   April 3, 1974           Xenia OH 
27   April 3, 1974           Daisy Hill IN 
26   May 6, 1973             Valley Mills TX
25   February 21, 1971       Delhi LA
24   May 11, 1970            Lubbock TX
23   June 13, 1968           Tracy MN
22   May 15, 1968            Maynard IA
21   May 15, 1968            Charles City IA
20   April 23, 1968          Gallipolis OH
19   October 14, 1966        Belmond IA
18   June 8, 1966            Topeka KS
17   March 3, 1966           Jackson MS
16   May 8, 1965             Gregory SD
15   May 5, 1964             Bradshaw NE
14   April 3, 1964           Wichita Falls TX
13   May 5, 1960             Prague OK
12   June 4, 1958            Menomonie WI
11   December 18, 1957       Murphysboro IL
10   June 20, 1957           Fargo ND
9   May 20, 1957            Ruskin Heights MO
8   April 3, 1956           Grand Rapids MI
7   May 25, 1955            Udall KS
6   May 25, 1955            Blackwell OK
5   December 5, 1953        Vicksburg MS
4   June 27, 1953           Adair IA
3   June 8, 1953            Flint MI
2   May 29, 1953            Ft. Rice ND
1   May 11, 1953            Waco TX

[Henry Hawk]

But even with that, Indiana only had 22 and look at all the others with MUCH larger average....

anyway, it STILL doesn't seem right, but I guess who am I to KNOCK their study, huh? 

[Locutus]

This is downtown Miami back in 1997.  At the time, I was working in this area in one of the high-rise office buildings.  Think this is one of our routine tropical storms?  It's not.  Keep watching the video.

http://www.youtube.com/v/CRuwJN8yuoA

[Palehorse]

But even with that, Indiana only had 22 and look at all the others with MUCH larger average....

anyway, it STILL doesn't seem right, but I guess who am I to KNOCK their study, huh? 

You're confused.

The first post is outlining a study of f-3 through f-5 long track tornadoes only. NOT little twisters or those rated under f-3 that were not "long track" in duration. In Addition the first study involves a time period much longer than any of the latter posted studies; encompassing the data 1880 through 2003. (And then ONLY long track tornadoes of a rating of f-3 or above) .

Indiana's "average" of 22 was for the years 1991 through 2010; and was an average of that time period that included all tornadoes of any rating.

When the data encompasses a larger time period, (as in the first one I posted about), and limits the data to only those that rate f-3 or above and those being long track (meaning time and distance on the ground), Indiana jumps up toward the top because it has two cities on opposite sides of the state that rank right beneath the #1 and #2 cities of Tulsa, OK and Shreveport, LA.

The F5 only map / listing for the time period of 1950 through present, demonstrates that southern Indiana and the "tri-state" area of Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky have been demonstrably dangerous for an F5 event over the past 63 years.

You can slough that off if you want to; after all it is your life. But to me that demonstrates the fact that when we do get a tornado it has a high likelihood of being a highly destructive and killer one. And I take that seriously and plan accordingly.

The "traditional" location of tornado alley is below:



And as the information I posted bears out, this "view" is no longer accurate and a wise individual would be well advised to educate themselves based upon the wealth of current data and analysis available today.

[Henry Hawk]

You can slough that off if you want to.

What is the matter with you?  You jump to conclusions WAY too often.     I'm not sloughing anything off....I just made an observation, NOT declaring anything or anyone wrong.  Just added to your conversation. 

[Palehorse]

What is the matter with you?  You jump to conclusions WAY too often.     I'm not sloughing anything off....I just made an observation, NOT declaring anything or anyone wrong.  Just added to your conversation.

And I am just responding to you in the manner your usual approach dictates.

You created this mess. . .

[Henry Hawk]

And I am just responding to you in the manner your usual approach dictates.

You created this mess. . .

What mess are you talking about?  I thought we was having a discussion and you turned it into something else, like always.

[Palehorse]

What mess are you talking about?  I thought we was having a discussion and you turned it into something else, like always.

No. I made a statement and you took it personally, as usual.

You are the one who places this ship into peril on a daily basis. You spin and twist things in order to create an environment of chaos.

You take a topic related to a current event and make it a personal tragedy.

There's nothing wrong with disagreeing with a view or position, but when you use opinion in an attempt to discredit scientific fact you aren't doing anything to bolster your credibility. . .